What's going on?
The 59th US election takes place on Tuesday, so we’ve taken a look at how investors might cash in if the current president is right on the money.
What does this mean?
If the current president wins again, the most likely situation is a Congress – the law-making arm of government – split between two parties, with the Democratic Party holding onto its House of Representatives majority and the Republican Party keeping control of the Senate.
If that’s the case, investors can probably expect more of the last four years: a renewed trade war with China, as well as rising trade tensions with Europe. Coronavirus will be on everyone’s minds too: the warring parties haven’t had much luck reaching an agreement on government support so far, and investors will be keen to know what – if anything – is next.
Why should I care?
For markets: China last.
A Republican presidential victory is likely to eliminate the chances of a low-cost public healthcare option, which some analysts reckon will boost the shares of US healthcare companies that would’ve had to compete on price. Energy companies might get a lift too, seeing as Republicans are generally at odds with Democrats’ greener views. On the other hand, China’s stocks might come under pressure if the trade war picks back up – even though they’re a favorite among investors who expect the country’s economy to be the only major one to grow this year.
For you personally: Don’t worry, be happy.
Analysts largely agree that most investors – especially those focused on the long term – shouldn’t alter what they do with their money based on a single (if pretty monumental) election. The US stock market has, after all, risen by 6-7% annually since 1993, no matter who was running the show. For all the volatility and uncertainty to come, you’re probably better off sitting back, relaxing, and letting your investments do their thing.