5 months ago • 4:53 mins
Back in December, JPMorgan predicted that US stocks would gain 5% this year, economists were expecting the 10-year US bond yield to stick around 2%, and Goldman Sachs raised the prospect that bitcoin would hit $100,000. But six months later, US stocks are down 20%, the 10-year yield is at 3%, and bitcoin more than halved to around $21,000. The truth is, the pros on Wall Street have a terrible forecasting record, and all you need to do better is to follow five simple steps inspired by Philip Tetlock’s book Superforecasting.
Imagine you came across a headline that says: “Markets are significantly overvalued and are about to crash”.
First things first, you need to understand what “markets are about to crash” actually means.
Financial news commentators are declaring bitcoin dead (again). But Jon’s taken a look at the data, and it tells a different story.
But there’s a risk of a rude awakening. So Stéphane says you might want to approach the latest stock rally with caution.
The global investment firm has updated its outlook for 2023. So Stéphane’s taken a look at how it sees things going and what you can do to prepare for it.