5 months ago • 4:53 mins
Back in December, JPMorgan predicted that US stocks would gain 5% this year, economists were expecting the 10-year US bond yield to stick around 2%, and Goldman Sachs raised the prospect that bitcoin would hit $100,000. But six months later, US stocks are down 20%, the 10-year yield is at 3%, and bitcoin more than halved to around $21,000. The truth is, the pros on Wall Street have a terrible forecasting record, and all you need to do better is to follow five simple steps inspired by Philip Tetlock’s book Superforecasting.
Imagine you came across a headline that says: “Markets are significantly overvalued and are about to crash”.
First things first, you need to understand what “markets are about to crash” actually means.
Co-founder Howard Marks recommends taking a step back. Russell’s got a look at the bigger picture and how you can benefit from the view.
The billionaire investor is wagering that the Hong Kong dollar will break its longstanding peg with the US dollar. Luke explains what’s at stake.
Done the conventional way, forecasting is tedious and time-consuming. Luckily, Paul’s devised a simpler and more creative method you can use.